Next United Kingdom general election 

This article or section contains information about a forthcoming election.
Content may change dramatically as the election approaches.
‹ 2005 •  members Flag of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom general election
All 650 seats of the House of Commons
on or before 3 June 2010
Leader Gordon Brown David Cameron Nick Clegg
Party Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat
Leader since 24 June 2007 6 December 2005 18 December 2007
Leader's seat Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Witney Sheffield Hallam
Last election 356 seats, 35.3% 198 seats, 32.3% 62 seats, 22.1%
Seats needed –22 +118 +260
1997 election • MPs
2001 election • MPs
2005 election • MPs
Next election

Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1715 as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, the next United Kingdom general election must be held on or before 3 June 2010, barring exceptional circumstances.1

The next general election will be called following the dissolution of the current Parliament. Parliament is dissolved by the Monarch, usually at the request of the Prime Minister. Dissolution can occur at any time within five years of the start of that parliament. However, since the Parliamentary term was set at five years, parliaments have most often sat for four years, with fresh elections being called at the start of the fifth year.2

If the current Parliament follows the pattern of dissolution after four years, the next general election will occur in 2009. The elections of 2001 and 2005 were timed to coincide with local, regional or European elections, an effort to reduce costs and increase turnout. If that practice is also followed, the election will take place on 4 June 2009, to coincide with elections to the European Parliament and local elections in England and those planned for Northern Ireland. (Note: there is some confusion regarding the date of the European Parlimentary Elections. See European Parliament election, 2009 article and also http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/localgovernment/2009electionsconsultation.

The general election will take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom for seats in the House of Commons. The number of seats will rise from 646 to 650 under the proposals made by the Boundary Commissions for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (the Scottish Boundary Commission made its last review prior to the 2005 general election).34

The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to restore support lost since 1997.5 The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics after losses in the 1990s, replacing Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats hope to make gains from both sides; although they too would ideally wish to form a government, their more realistic ambition is to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. The Scottish National Party, encouraged by their victory in the 2007 Scottish parliament elections, have set themselves a target of 20 MPs and will also be hoping to find themselves in a balance of power position. 6

In November 2006 it was reported that activists for the governing Labour Party were being warned to prepare for a general election as early as 2008.7 In June 2007, in his speech accepting his appointment as leader of the Labour Party, Gordon Brown declared that he was appointing a member of the government as election co-ordinator. This was considered by some suggestive that he was intending to call an election earlier than expected.8 After much media speculation in early October 2007 that an election would be called for first week of November 2007,9 Gordon Brown announced in an interview with the BBCs Andrew Marr that he would not call an election 'in the next period', thought to mean 2007 or 2008.10 This announcement followed an opinion poll of marginal constituencies targeted by the Conservatives, which indicated that an election could result in the loss of the overall Labour majority,11 for after boundary changes the Labour Party only had to lose 21 seats to lose its majority.

Contents

Leadership of the main parties

David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005 replacing Michael Howard. Sir Menzies Campbell replaced Charles Kennedy (who resigned after his own admission of having an alcohol problem) as leader of the Lib Dems in March 2006. Sir Menzies resigned on 15 October 2007 with Nick Clegg being elected as his successor in December 2007. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party on 27 June 2007. The last time all three main parties went into a General Election with new leaders was in the 1979 election, when James Callaghan as Labour leader, Margaret Thatcher for the Conservatives, and David Steel with the then Liberal Party, took to the polls.

The leadership of each party may have implications beyond party popularity at the polls, especially if a hung parliament requires the formation of a coalition or minority government. Whereas Tony Blair courted the Lib Dems for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, Gordon Brown is thought to be more resistant to co-operation with the Lib Dems. David Cameron is attempting to make a pitch towards what is referred to as Middle England — the people who it is said have abandoned the Conservative Party since 1992 for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.12

Menzies Campbell13 and Nick Clegg14 have continued the position of Charles Kennedy of not being prepared to form a coalition with either main party and of voting against any Queen's Speech unless there was an unambiguous commitment in it to introduce Proportional Representation.

See also Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2005, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006, Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007, Timeline for the 2007 Labour Party (UK) Leadership elections and new Prime Minister, Labour Party (UK) deputy leadership election, 2007, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2007

Other parties

There is one independent member of Parliament, Dai Davies, elected in a by-election in succession to fellow independent Peter Law, who died in April 2006. Since the last election, Clare Short and Bob Wareing have resigned the Labour whip, with Short planning to stand down at the next election and Wareing planning to contest his seat as an independent, having been deselected by the local CLP. Three Conservative members are no longer under the Conservative whip, although only one (Bob Spink) plans to stand at the next election, after having been deselected and defecting to the UK Independence Party15. Given vocal groups of opposition within the main parties, it is always possible that the number of independent MPs will continue to increase as members are expelled or resign.

Many constituencies will be contested by other, smaller parties. Parties that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005 but have seats in the devolved assemblies or European Parliament include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Green Party.

UKIP's leader, Roger Knapman, retired as leader on his term ending in 2006 with the leadership election on 12 September 2006 electing Nigel Farage as his replacement, with the defection of former Conservative MP Bob Spink to the party on 22 April 2008, UKIP now has a seat in the House of Commons for the first time.16 The Green Party of England and Wales has voted to have a position of leader for the first time; the first leadership election was won by Dr Caroline Lucas MEP, Prospective Parliamentary Candidate to contest the constituency of Brighton Pavilion.

Parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen), the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and the Ulster Unionist Party from Northern Ireland; Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru from Scotland and Wales respectively; and RESPECT The Unity Coalition and Health Concern, each of which hold one Parliamentary seat from England. In a hung parliament, MPs from smaller parties may be approached by one of the larger parties, in order to form a workable majority.

Small parties and independents that fail to win a seat can still have an effect on the outcome of an election (as can larger parties in seats in which they have no realistic prospect of winning) by taking votes off candidates who have a reasonable prospect of winning that particular seat.

See also List of political parties in the United Kingdom

Opinion polls, and analysis of votes in relation to numbers of seats

The fact that each MP is elected separately makes it impossible to directly interpret national shares of the vote into a clear outcome in United Kingdom general elections as it is unknown for all constituencies in a General Election to exactly reflect national trends. However, analysis of previous elections shows that approximate forecasting of results can be achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system is used by much of the media in the UK to assess electoral fortunes.

Due to the boundary changes which will come into effect at the election, the benchmarks for relating national vote share to the outcome in seats have been recalculated by a team led by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Figures in brackets represents the headline lead. Note that these figures do not take into account the performance of the Liberal Democrats, minor or nationalist parties, Independent candidates, or localised effects caused by a change in the distribution of the Labour and Conservative vote and that of other parties.

Uniform national swing Result
Any to Lab Increased Labour majority in Parliament (Labour lead greater than 3%)
Up to 1.6% to Con Reduced Labour majority (Labour lead of up to 3%)
1.6% – 4.3% to Con Labour hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 6%)
4.3% – 6.9% Con Conservative hung parliament (A Conservative lead of up to 9%)
More than 6.9% to Con Conservative overall majority (A Conservative lead of over 9%)

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence in the government.

The First Past the Post nature of the system may not reflect the national popular vote shares across the parties, although sometimes individual parties achieve similar shares of votes and seats. In addition, it is not necessarily the party with the popular vote nationwide that ends up the largest grouping of MPs, and since 1935 no single party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a UK General Election. A widely distributed vote not concentrated in particular areas, a party is at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with very strong localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

See also Exit poll, Opinion poll, Opinion polling in the next United Kingdom general election, Spoiler effect, Tactical voting, Voting system, Wasted vote

MPs who have announced their retirement at the next General Election

Labour

Conservative

Liberal Democrats

Other parties

Boundary changes

Main article: Boundary change recommendations for the next UK general election

The current list of constituencies likely to be used in the next United Kingdom general election (in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) is in Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.

The results of the 2005 election.

The four national Boundary Commissions are required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in its part of the United Kingdom every eight to twelve years to ensure the size and composition of constituencies are as fair as possible.

Scotland saw its most recent large-scale review completed in 2004, so the boundaries used in the 2005 General Election in Scotland will still apply at the next UK general election; England, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to have their first boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies since the 1997 General Election.

Constituencies in Wales were reviewed by the Boundary Commission for Wales. The recommendations were laid before Parliament on 14 December 2005 and approved on 11 April 2006.77 The new constituencies will apply from the next general election.

In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd: Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than their counterparts in England.

The Boundary Commission for England completed and sent its recommendations to the Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs on 31 October 2006. The changes, which included four additional seats, were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 13 June 2007.78

In 2006 the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission proposed that minor changes to its eastern constituencies. The changes were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 11 June 2008.79 For the first time, these changes include the splitting of an electoral ward between two constituencies.

Based on studies using ward by ward data from Local Elections and the 2005 General Election, it is believed that boundary changes implemented for the expected General Election notionally reduce the number of Labour seats by nine, given that there are to be four more seats in the next parliament this notionally reduces Labour's majority from 66 to 44.

Top 10 marginals for main parties

Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is "The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.80 The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.81 The various estimates differ in detail.

Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where the party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election. A complete list for each party is currently being compiled in party order starting with the Conservatives which can be found here, with the top 50 Labour here, top 50 Liberal Democrat and top 25 Plaid and SNP targets to follow.

N.B. The 'Winning Party' is notional (except in the case of Scottish constituencies), calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat, and may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 General Election.

Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 0.02
2 Crawley Labour 0.04
3 York Outer Liberal Democrat 0.22
4 Romsey and Southampton North Liberal Democrat 0.23
5 Harlow Labour 0.29
6 Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 0.33
7 Croydon Central Labour 0.36
8 Portsmouth North Labour 0.38
9 Battersea Labour 0.41
10 Hove Labour 0.50

Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Sittingbourne and Sheppey Conservative 0.03
2 Clwyd West Conservative 0.07
3 Hemel Hempstead Conservative 0.18
4 Kettering Conservative 0.20
5 North East Somerset Conservative 0.23
6 Finchley and Golders Green Conservative 0.35
7 Shipley Conservative 0.48
8 Dundee East Scottish National Party 0.48
9 Rochester and Strood Conservative 0.57
10 Wellingborough Conservative 0.62

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Guildford Conservative 0.09
2 Solihull Conservative 0.12
3 Rochdale Labour 0.17
4 Oxford East Labour 0.37
5 Edinburgh South Labour 0.47
6 Hampstead and Kilburn Labour 0.57
7 Eastbourne Conservative 0.70
8 Islington South and Finbury Labour 0.78
9 Watford Labour 1.17
10 Ealing Central and Acton Labour 1.37

Scottish National Party targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Ochil and South Perthshire Labour 0.74
2 Dundee West Labour 7.28

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Ceredigion Liberal Democrat 0.31
2 Arfon Labour 0.91
3 Ynys Môn Labour 1.75

Green Party targets

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing to gain
1 Brighton Pavilion Labour Co-op 6.7

Notes

  1. ^ Technically, Parliament could vote to extend the lifetime of the current term beyond 5 years. This cannot be done by the House of Commons alone; it must be additionally approved by the House of Lords (the Parliament Acts may not be utilised in this case) and by the Queen-in-Parliament. Since 1911, extension of the maximum term of Parliaments has only occurred during the First and Second World Wars. [1] The previous general election in the UK was held on 5 May 2005.
  2. ^ "Election: How It Works — The General Election process". The Scotsman (2005-04-05).
  3. ^ "Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland" (PDF).
  4. ^ "Final Northern Ireland boundary change recommendations".
  5. ^ "Brown would 'renew' Labour Party". BBC News Online (2007-01-05).
  6. ^ "Salmond wants Westminster to 'dance to a Scottish jig' as he targets 20 seats". Scotsman (2008-04-21).
  7. ^ "Labour 'warns of early election'". BBC News Online (2006-12-12-08).
  8. ^ Philip Webster (2007-06-25). "Election set for 2008". The Times.
  9. ^ "How election fever developed". BBC News Online (2007-10-06).
  10. ^ "Brown rules out autumn election". BBC News Online (2007-10-06).
  11. ^ "Tory marginals poll". News of the World (2007-10-06).
  12. ^ "Brown to stake all on Middle England". The Times (2006-09-25).
  13. ^ "Liberal Democrats under my leadership would vote against any Queens Speech without a clear and unambiguous commitment for Proportional Representation". mingcampbell.co.uk (2006-02-15).
  14. ^ "Clegg's terms for deal in hung parliament". Guardian Unlimited (2008-03-10).
  15. ^ "Ex-Tory MP defects to UKIP". BBC News (2008-04-22).
  16. ^ "Tory rebel Bob Spink becomes Ukip's first MP". Daily Telegraph (2008-04-22).
  17. ^ "John Austin MP to retire". ePolitix (2008-07-31).
  18. ^ "Battle's war is finally over". Yorkshire Evening Post (2006-10-23).
  19. ^ "Caborn to stand down as city MP". BBC News (2007-09-13).
  20. ^ "Boundary changes threaten Labour women". The Guardian (2006-12-07).
  21. ^ "MP quits to back climate campaign". BBC News (2007-01-30).
  22. ^ "No surprise at party deselection". The Northern Echo (2008-01-14).
  23. ^ "MP Cryer to quit at next election". BBC News (2008-08-21).
  24. ^ "Labour stalwart is to step down", The Journal (Newcastle-upon-Tyne) (2006-10-10). Retrieved on 26 December 2007. 
  25. ^ "Dean to step down as town's MP". Uttoxeter Advertiser, (2007-06-20).
  26. ^ "City MP Bill to step down". Sunderland Echo (2006-12-09).
  27. ^ "MP Neil Gerrard to stand down at next election". Waltham Forest Guardian (2007-02-23).
  28. ^ "Selby MP Grogan to stand down". York Press (2006-10-11).
  29. ^ "Keith Hill to Retire". Keith Hill campaign website (2007-05-23).
  30. ^ "MP Brian to step down after 30 years", Manchester Evening News (2006-10-06). 
  31. ^ "Jones won't defect to Lib Dems". Birmingham Post (2007-02-01).
  32. ^ "Ruth Kelly to stand down as an MP". BBC News (2008-10-03).
  33. ^ "Wearside MP to stand down". Sunderland Echo (2008-09-06).
  34. ^ "MP to step down at next election". Brighton and Hove Argus (2006-09-19).
  35. ^ "Blairite McKenna to step down as MP after 40 years in politics". The Herald (2007-08-03).
  36. ^ "Blair critic to stand down as MP". BBC News (2007-07-17).
  37. ^ "McCafferty to stand down at next election". Halifax Courier (2007-03-07).
  38. ^ "Sunderland MP to quit". Sunderland Echo (2008-05-10).
  39. ^ "Bristol North West MP to retire". BBC News (2007-01-26).
  40. ^ "Bill to stand down as MP". Coventry Telegraph (2007-03-27).
  41. ^ "John Prescott to stand down as MP". BBC News Online, (2007-08-27).
  42. ^ "City MP Ken to retire". Express & Star (2007-10-27).
  43. ^ "Reid to step down at next poll". BBC News Online (2007-09-15).
  44. ^ "Sarwar plans to stand down as MP". BBC News (2007-06-21).
  45. ^ "Blair critic to stand down as MP". BBC News (2007-02-18).
  46. ^ "Blears wins seat selection battle". BBC News (2008-01-19).
  47. ^ "Strang ready to quit Commons at next election". The Scotsman (2007=11-26).
  48. ^ "Veteran MP Strang 'in it for the long haul' after U-turn". The Scotsman.
  49. ^ "Strang thinks again and vows to quit as MP in latest U-turn". The Scotsman (2008-06-27).
  50. ^ "MP set to stand down". The Burton Mail (2008-05-13).
  51. ^ "Mark Todd Announces He Will Not Fight Next Election". Derby Evening Telegraph (2007-09-22).
  52. ^ "MP to hand over baton of power". Brighton and Hove Argus (2006-10-24).
  53. ^ "Rudi Vis to stand down at next election". Hendon Times (2007-05-28).
  54. ^ "Labour MP set to quit over health". BBC News (2008-07-21).
  55. ^ "Blair bids to preserve legacy with new MPs". Evening Standard (2006-10-23).
  56. ^ "Labour MP to stand down as constituency changes". Western Mail (2008-10-12).
  57. ^ Tory MP to quit at next election, Northumberland Gazette, 19 June 2008
  58. ^ Boswell set for farewell as Tory MP, Northampton Today, 31 March 2006
  59. ^ Tory deputy chairman to step down, BBC News Online, 17 November 2006
  60. ^ Sir John to stand down at next election, Dorset Echo, 18 March 2008
  61. ^ "Michael Howard stands down as MP, BBC News Online, 17 March 2006
  62. ^ "Shock as MP Jack to quit seat, Blackpool Gazette, 15 March 2008
  63. ^ MP to stand down at next election, BBC News Online, 4 December 2007
  64. ^ Veteran MP announces retirement, BBC News Online, 24 November 2006
  65. ^ Fenland MP Malcolm Moss will stand down,Peterborough Evening Telegraph, 7 September 2007
  66. ^ Sir Michael gets ready to bow out, Worcester News, 24 March 2006
  67. ^ Ann Widdecombe set to stand down, BBC News Online, 7 October 2007
  68. ^ "Colin Breed MP to stand down at next General Election".
  69. ^ Paul Keetch MP to stand down at General Election, LibDemVoice
  70. ^ Mark Oaten to quit Commons at election, The Independent, 26 July 2006, p13.
  71. ^ Lib Dem MP Taylor to step down, BBC News Online, 18 May 2007
  72. ^ Lib Dem MP to retire from Commons, BBC News Online, 18 May 2007
  73. ^ Salmond IS to stand for Gordon MSP seat, Buchan Observer, January 2006.
  74. ^ Clare Short: I'm standing down so I can speak the truth, The Independent, 14 September 2006.
  75. ^ Clare Short resigns as Labour MP, BBC News Online, 20 October 2006
  76. ^ Conway to step down at election, BBC News Online, 30 January 2008
  77. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies and Assembly Electoral Regions (Wales) Order 2006 (S.I. 2006 No. 1041)".
  78. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007 (S.I. 2007 No. 1681)".
  79. ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (Northern Ireland) Order 2008 (S.I. 2008 No. 1486)".
  80. ^ Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre for BBC, ITN, PA News and Sky News. ISBN 0 948858 45 1.
  81. ^ UKPollingReport Election Guide, UK Polling Report, in association with YouGov

External links

Boundary changes

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